2019 Real Estate Statistics and a Look at 2020
It’s always important to take time in January to reflect on the previous year. This is especially important when looking at real estate. Our clients are always interested in understanding where the market has been and where we think it’s going. Fortunately, we have detailed data about what’s been happening in Jackson County and we love to geek out on the numbers!
Basically, the market was almost identical to 2018. There was a 2.5% drop in sales of preexisting homes, but that was more than made up for with an increase in the sales of newly constructed homes from 300 homes to 350, a 15% year over year increase. Additionally, there was an increase in rural transactions of about 11%.
Median home values increased 4.6% county wide, but surged to 9.8% and 9.7% in Ashland and West Medford respectively. These increases do NOT mean values increased by 9.8% in Ashland. In fact, values stayed very close or on par with 2018 and may have increased slightly. The increase in the median value is more likely due to a decrease in the availability of lower priced homes and/or buyers purchasing homes in a higher price range than the prior year.
A total of 3710 homes were sold in Jackson county, up 41 from 2018. That also represents approximately $1.4 billion in sales! The Ashland story is interesting as it was Ashland that saw the inventory spike in the spring, providing 75% more inventory than the previous spring. At year’s end the overall inventory was actually less than Dec 2018 in Ashland. This tells us that sellers did exactly what we recommended to our clients: seller’s put their homes on the market early to beat the smoke and avoid risking having their home on the market during August/September, which have been impacted by fire and smoke in recent years.
Interestingly, average days on market is really starting to stretch out in Ashland increasing from 62 days in 2018 to 79 days in 2019. As a whole, Jackson County only went up from 39 average days on the market in 2018 to 45 in 2019, so Ashland is almost double the average days on the market for the county. We’re not exactly sure of the implications of this and if our market may be slowing, but it is an excellent data point to consider. As Realtors, it underscores that setting the right price is more critical than ever, especially in Ashland. Buyers are price sensitive and are not willing to overpay, even in a place as popular and charming as Ashland.
As far as what the market will look like moving forward, we believe it will look quite similar to 2019 with a continued balancing of the market from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. Inventories are still tight with less than 6 month’s supply available. Interest rates are predicted to stay at least the same and possibly even decrease.
Some wonder about buying or selling in a presidential election year and some will even make a decision based on their own perception of what may happen; however, statistically our market has zero evidence from the last 4 election cycles that elections impact the statistics in any meaningful way. As always, our housing market is sensitive to big disruptions in the economy (stock prices falling, oil fluctuations, etc…), large scale global events and natural disasters, so these we cannot predict nor attempt to.
One thing we do know is that having a conversation with a Realtor who has a deep understanding of the market is more important than ever. We live and breathe real estate and are always happy to help you make prudent decisions, whether you are looking to buy, sell or just explore real estate in the coming year. We look forward to hearing from you!