ANALYSIS AND THOUGHTS for the rolling quarter ended April 202

The past month or so has been characterized by improved volatility in the stock market. In fact, the stock market has now recovered most of its losses and continues to climb back toward all-time highs. The bond market is a different story. The bond market hasn’t moved much at all over the same period. We were hoping for a bond market rally as well, as rallying bonds generally means lower mortgage rates. When bonds go up, rates go down. Mortgage rates are still stuck at about 7% on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

On Tuesday morning, we got the latest inflation numbers. The headline inflation number was 2.3% year over year and the core inflation number was 2.8% year over year. The Fed’s preferred number is the core number, and it still remains nearly 50% higher than the Fed’s 2% target. It’s no wonder that mortgage rates remain stubbornly high. They can’t go much lower until the bond market is convinced that inflation is returning to 2%.

Jackson County sales volume was up nearly 8% year over year. And in some markets, such as East Medford and Central Point, sales volume was up over 20%! Median days on market barely moved at all (21 last year v. 23 this year)- homes are still selling just as fast as they were last year. Median pricing is up 0.5%. However, in some markets, pricing is down. Inventory is up over 20%, but a lot of it is rural. Urban inventory is still tight.

Thank you very much for reading, and as always do not hesitate to contact me should you have any questions, comments and/or concerns.