Colin’s analysis of Jackson County Residential Statistics

The latest housing numbers are out from the Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Services for the quarter ending May 2017. So what do they tell us? Well, it’s still very much a sellers’ market, with buyers still searching through the very thin inventory. Pent up demand from years of low inventory and continued record low interest rates leave buyers feeling frustrated as they seek to enter the market.

For Jackson county we saw approximately a 7% reduction in sales overall, which could easily be misinterpreted that the market is slowing…. which would be wrong. If you look at the homes on the market, it is also down 7% from the same period last year, so there is simply less inventory than last year.

There were 798 homes sold in Jackson County from March 1 through May 31, that consisted of 637 Urban Homes and 161 Rural homes, and there is a total of 865 homes on the market as of May 31. That means that there is roughly a three-month supply of inventory in our market. That said, however, of those 865 homes, many are in areas that sell at a much slower rate, are more remote, have unusual settings or floor-plans, need work or are simply overpriced!

So, there really is NOT a three-month supply because much of that inventory is simply not within most buyers realm of desire or purchase power.  It’s in fact far less. Perhaps the biggest mistake I see sellers making in this market is their desire to push the boundaries on pricing. As a real estate professional, it is my job to help a seller understand what a reasonable buyer might be willing to pay for their home in this market, based on real market data and I take that responsibility very seriously. For example, a seller who pushes my $400,000 recommendation to $435,000 risks sitting on the market and being left behind by more realistic sellers. Remember buyers are sensitive to pricing and they are combing over the market now more than ever. They have seen the inventory and have an acute sense of where things are and how homes should be priced. A seller who pushes that price undermines their ability to even get the original suggested price in the analysis. For this reason, it’s really important to listen to the professionals in the market place. It’s what we do, and we at Full Circle are truly good at it!

Perhaps the most misleading statistic in the report is the difference between median pricing in any given market from last year to this year. For example, it says Ashland’s median value went from $380,000 to $430,000. While statistically accurate, it’s important to remember that median values reflect market trends and not individual property values. So, if you owned a home worth $380,000 in Ashland Last year, it does NOT mean it’s worth $430,000 this year. It’s possible, but unlikely.

Take a look through the statistics (link here) and make sure you reach out if you have any questions or comments on anything in this blog or the Statistics! See you next month for the latest stats! Cheers, Colin