Southern Oregon Real Estate Stats with Colin

Well the latest housing statistics are in from the Southern Oregon Multiple Listing service. They confirm what most of us already knew- sales are rising, prices are rising and inventory levels are sneaking up just a little. Looking at raw numbers, the median sales price in Ashland increased 19.8% over the same period last year, Jacksonville, 23.9%and Gold Hill/Rogue Rover, 33.3%! Holy cow….what’s up with that? Well, while statistically accurate, it is important to note that these percentage increases do not indicate the increased value of individual homes in those markets. It is more of a reflection that fewer less expensive homes are available in those markets this year versus last year. There is no doubt that the market is seeing increased prices across the board, but maybe, just maybe, there is a shift in sight.

Inventory levels are starting to increase, yes, despite the statistics showing a 1.1% decrease.  Consider the following: Last year we saw 955 homes sold in the valley through the MLS, June 1 through August 31st, and there were 1055 homes on the market at the end of that period. That indicates an overall housing supply for the 3 months of 2,010 homes. For the same period this year, we had 1,050 homes sold and 1,043 on the market on the 31st, yielding a total supply of homes for that period of 2,093. A modest increase in the overall supply of some 4%.  For the seemingly hot market to cool at all, we must see a shift in this direction. While it is unlikely to have a dramatic effect anytime soon, the signs are there that we may be seeing the increased supply take some of the pressure off buyers as prices stabilize. The immediate outlook is more of the same, as there is always a time lag between when the market shifts and when buyers and sellers are willing to accept that shift. Continued low mortgage rates and spiraling rents continue to provide an incentive for buyers to enter the market.

While I don’t have a crystal ball, nor would I ever pretend to have one, I do my best to read the statistics in as realistic and grounded manner as possible.  I may be completely wrong. It happens. But for now, this is what I see. Thanks for reading.

Sincerely, Colin